PCAPS Task Teams report considerable progress to meeting their goals

2026 marks the halfway point in the current five-year lifecycle of the PCAPS project, presenting an opportunity to reflect on progress so far. The first step in this review was an update from the PCAPS Task Teams in an online meeting on 23 February 2026. The next opportunity to take stock will be the annual face-to-face meeting scheduled for mid-August 2026 in Oslo.

So, how is PCAPS going? The short answer is that PCAPS is now fully underway. The Task Teams - the main engines of activity within PCAPS - are active, new collaborations are forming across communities that previously had few opportunities to interact, and the project is beginning to deliver outputs aligned with its core goals: improving the fidelity, actionability and impact of polar environmental prediction. These efforts also position PCAPS to make meaningful contributions to initiatives like IPY-5.

Based on updates from the eight Task Teams, PCAPS is on track to deliver many of the outputs described in the Implementation Plan. This is particularly encouraging given that several of the Task Teams had yet to be formed prior to the in-person meeting in Cambridge in April 2025. It was also encouraging to see the active contribution of Early Career Professionals (ECP) to many of the Task Teams and their willingness to take on some of the challenging activities within the teams.

Improving the scientific foundations of polar prediction is an important strand of PCAPS activity. The Processes Task Team continues work begun during PPP to improve the representation of smaller-scale atmospheric, ocean and sea-ice processes in coupled models. Planned activities include promoting the Merged Data Format (MDF) File toolbox, which allows modellers to compare model tendencies with observations from past and future field campaigns and thereby strengthen model evaluation. The Processes Task Team anticipate: publishing a paper outlining the challenges for coupled models in representing polar processes; examining options for improving the forecasting of surface visibility at local scales; and, running a hackathon for ECPs to introduce them to the use of the MDF files and challenges in polar processes.

One clear theme was how PCAPS is bringing together communities around shared challenges. The Observational Requirements in the Context of AI Prediction Systems (ORCAS), the Distributed Observational Networks to Advance Coupled Forecasting Systems (DON4FS), and Sea Ice and Thickness Task Team (SITTT) are good examples of this. All are bringing observationalists, modellers and forecasting centres together to explore how emerging tools such as artificial intelligence can be used effectively, how existing observational networks can be maintained and extended, and how new observation types might be developed. They are also beginning to develop approaches for benchmarking and intercomparison so that different modelling approaches can be evaluated more systematically. PCAPS is also exploring how distributed observational networks can be better coordinated with observations campaigns and integrated with modelling efforts, helping to strengthen the observational foundations and usage needed for advancing research and improving forecasting capability

Other Task Teams are also extending work that began during the Polar Prediction Project (PPP). The Services and Actionability Task Team and the Impact and Sustainability Task Team both build on earlier work from the PPP Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA) Task Team. A major activity undertaken by these Task Teams during PCAPS has been the development of a Horizon Scanning initiative aimed at identifying the critical challenges and bottlenecks for improving polar environmental services and the key societal outcomes to which these relate . Phase 1 of this work is already underway, with early results presented at the Climate and Cryosphere Open Science Conference in Wellington, New Zealand, in early February 2025. Further analysis is ongoing while preparations begin for the second phase of the survey.

Forecast verification is a common component across all Task Teams. The Verification Task Team, which also traces its origins to PPP, continues to provide a forum for regular exchanges between major polar weather centres. While earlier activities focused largely on the Arctic atmosphere, the group has begun extending its discussions to include ocean and sea-ice verification and to expand coverage to the Antarctic.

The meeting also welcomed the creation of a new Task Team focusing on Extremes in the Antarctic. Its formation reflects how PCAPS continues to evolve as new scientific priorities and community interests emerge.

One of the highlights of the presentations was the strong coordination and cooperation across the Task Teams. A challenge that many of the Task Teams noted and want to contribute to helping to solve is around data. Aspects of this issue include: how to find and access old campaign data; how to share data; and how to justify funding for new observation systems. This issue has also been raised during the PCAPS Open Sessions by users and is much bigger than PCAPS but perhaps PCAPS can contribute to the discussion of ways to solve the problem.

Taken together, the February meeting showed that PCAPS is moving beyond its initial organisational phase and into a period where the Task Teams are actively connecting communities and generating results. As the project moves into its second half, the challenge will increasingly be to build on these collaborations and translate them into tangible improvements in polar prediction systems and services.

Regular updates will be provided through the PCAPS blog and newsletter, ensuring that the community remains informed and engaged as PCAPS advances toward its goal. Stay tuned!

Thumbnail image courtesy of KOPRI.